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Modify search criterions 3 matches
| Title |
De l'enfant au vieillard |
| Author |
AVRON D., PETRUSZEWYCZ Micheline, SAUVY Alfred, (Réalisation Guilbaud Pierre, et Rossi Raoul) |
| Keywords |
, Census, Mortality, Natality, Population |
| Topics |
Demography, Pedagogy |
| Abstract |
Film (27 minutes) d'introduction à l'analyse démographique |
| Number |
1183, Fall 2008, special issue: Video flashback |
| Language |
French |
| Title |
Malthus and Boserup turned upside down: the odd story of demo-economics modelling |
| Author |
LE BRAS Hervé |
| Keywords |
Boserup, Demo-économics, Malthus, Population, Resources |
| Topics |
Demography, Economy - Econometrics, Historical demography - History of Demography, Modelling |
| Abstract |
Malthus was not a mathematician but he provided in few sentences a very fine view of the relationship between population, resources and technical improvement, a view summarized in the well-known competition between arithmetical and geometrical progressions. After him, Quetelet and Verhulst formulated a more mathematical view at the expense of the true process envisioned by the English scholar. More recently, the economists, starting with Solow until R.D. Lee went further away from Malthus's ideas in the name of mathematics and mainstream economics. In fact, we see in this paper, they went as far as to inverse the scheme of Malthus into its opposite, putting in face of it a «boserupian» model, itself inverting the ideas of the great agrarian and human scientist, Ester Boserup. Such a process, where elegant mathematics respects more the current social theory than the crude facts, is quite illustratory of a way of dealing with social and economic dynamics by introducing the time in the formulae instead of coping with the complexity of the reality. In this case, progress in mathematics is paralleled with loss of contact with the real world. |
| Number |
164, Winter 2003 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Who is afraid of arithmetic? |
| Author |
ROHRBASSER Jean-Marc |
| Keywords |
Arithmetic, Law of Nature, Mortality, Order, Population, Population dynamics, Probability of the duration of life |
| Topics |
Arithmetic - Number Theory, Historical demography - History of Demography, History of sciences, Probabilities |
| Abstract |
In this paper, we deal with the first calculations applied to population, even the most elementary ones, made in the latter half of the 17th century. Is it possible, theoretically and practically, to fix an average length of the human life? At what does the population increase? The answers to these typical questions are governed by an hypothesis of a regulated nature, perhaps by action of the divine will, and underlying hypothesis of order: it is possible to detect a law acting in these phenomena. We will examine, in turn, mortality with Graunt and Halley, the probability of the duration of life with the brothers Huygens and Leibniz, and the arithmetic of the doubling of the population with Petty. For these pioneers, one can with just cause speak of an «arithmetic of population», sometimes a probabilistic one, always focussing on concrete problems which, precisely, are stirred up by political arithmetic, that is to say considerations which are useful to the state. This paper presents the true birth of demographic statistics. |
| Number |
159, Fall 2002 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
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