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Title De l'enfant au vieillard
Author AVRON D., PETRUSZEWYCZ Micheline, SAUVY Alfred, (Réalisation Guilbaud Pierre, et Rossi Raoul)
Keywords , Census, Mortality, Natality, Population
Topics Demography, Pedagogy
Abstract Film (27 minutes) d'introduction à l'analyse démographique
Number 1183, Fall 2008, special issue: Video flashback
Language   French
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Title Malthus and Boserup turned upside down: the odd story of demo-economics modelling
Author LE BRAS Hervé
Keywords Boserup, Demo-économics, Malthus, Population, Resources
Topics Demography, Economy - Econometrics, Historical demography - History of Demography, Modelling
Abstract Malthus was not a mathematician but he provided in few sentences a very fine view of the relationship between population, resources and technical improvement, a view summarized in the well-known competition between arithmetical and geometrical progressions. After him, Quetelet and Verhulst formulated a more mathematical view at the expense of the true process envisioned by the English scholar. More recently, the economists, starting with Solow until R.D. Lee went further away from Malthus's ideas in the name of mathematics and mainstream economics. In fact, we see in this paper, they went as far as to inverse the scheme of Malthus into its opposite, putting in face of it a «boserupian» model, itself inverting the ideas of the great agrarian and human scientist, Ester Boserup. Such a process, where elegant mathematics respects more the current social theory than the crude facts, is quite illustratory of a way of dealing with social and economic dynamics by introducing the time in the formulae instead of coping with the complexity of the reality. In this case, progress in mathematics is paralleled with loss of contact with the real world.
Number 164, Winter 2003
Language   French
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Title Who is afraid of arithmetic?
Author ROHRBASSER Jean-Marc
Keywords Arithmetic, Law of Nature, Mortality, Order, Population, Population dynamics, Probability of the duration of life
Topics Arithmetic - Number Theory, Historical demography - History of Demography, History of sciences, Probabilities
Abstract In this paper, we deal with the first calculations applied to population, even the most elementary ones, made in the latter half of the 17th century. Is it possible, theoretically and practically, to fix an average length of the human life? At what does the population increase? The answers to these typical questions are governed by an hypothesis of a regulated nature, perhaps by action of the divine will, and underlying hypothesis of order: it is possible to detect a law acting in these phenomena. We will examine, in turn, mortality with Graunt and Halley, the probability of the duration of life with the brothers Huygens and Leibniz, and the arithmetic of the doubling of the population with Petty. For these pioneers, one can with just cause speak of an «arithmetic of population», sometimes a probabilistic one, always focussing on concrete problems which, precisely, are stirred up by political arithmetic, that is to say considerations which are useful to the state. This paper presents the true birth of demographic statistics.
Number 159, Fall 2002
Language   French
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