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Results n° 1 to 8 of 19 matches
| Title |
De l'enfant au vieillard |
| Author |
AVRON D., PETRUSZEWYCZ Micheline, SAUVY Alfred, (Réalisation Guilbaud Pierre, et Rossi Raoul) |
| Keywords |
, Census, Mortality, Natality, Population |
| Topics |
Demography, Pedagogy |
| Abstract |
Film (27 minutes) d'introduction à l'analyse démographique |
| Number |
1183, Fall 2008, special issue: Video flashback |
| Language |
 French |
| Title |
Ajustement du schéma par âge d'entrée en première union : le modèle Picrate |
| Author |
MATTHEWS Alan P., LECLERC Pauline M., GARENNE Michel L. |
| Keywords |
Africa, Age at first marriage, Coale-Mc Neil model, DHS survey, Event history analysis, Mathematical model |
| Topics |
Anthropology - Ethnology, Demography, Mathematical demography, Modelling |
| Abstract |
We present a new model for fitting the age pattern of entry into a new situation. The formulation of the marriage recruitment rate is simpler than in other available models, and particularly useful for computer simulation of the time-evolution of a population. The model has three parameters: a0, the starting age at event, pmax, the maximum proportion of the population at risk p(a), and rmax, the maximum value of the recruitment rate r(a). This model was tested on the entry into first union, and was compared with the widely-used Coale-McNeil model. We applied this model to the case of Zambia, and to a variety of African countries with different features. This model could also be used for fitting a variety of processes, such as first sexual intercourse, first birth, first job, first adult migration, etc |
| Number |
186, Summer 2009 |
| Language |
 English | Read the article
| Title |
Demographic time series: long memory or regime switching? |
| Author |
BOUTAHAR Mohamed, AJMI Ahdi Noomen |
| Keywords |
ARFIMA process, Demography, Long memory, Structural changes |
| Topics |
Demography, Modelling, Process, Time Series |
| Abstract |
A few works have recently advocated the use of the long memory concept in modelling demography time series. However, the study of such series shows evidence for regime switching which was pointed out by demographers many years ago. As in an economic framework, one may ask the following question, what is the genuine process describing such series: long memory or regime switching? |
| Number |
181, Spring 2008 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Matrimonial ring structures |
| Author |
HAMBERGER Klaus, HOUSEMAN Michael, DAILLANT Isabelle, WHITE Douglas R., BARRY Laurent |
| Keywords |
Enumeration theory, Graph theory, Kinship network, Matrimonial rings, Social anthropology, Social network analysis |
| Topics |
Anthropology - Ethnology, Demography, Graphs, Networks, Sociology |
| Abstract |
The paper deals with matrimonial rings, a particular kind of cycles in kinship networks which result when spouses are linked to each other by ties of consanguinity or affinity. By taking a network-analytic perspective, the paper endeavours to put this classical issue of structural kinship theory on a general basis, such as to allow conclusions which go beyond isolated discussions of particular ring types (like "cross-cousin marriage", "sister exchange", and so forth). The paper provides a definition and formal analysis of matrimonial rings, a method of enumerating all isomor-phism classes of matrimonial rings within given genealogical bounds, a series of network-analytic tools - such as the census graph - to analyse ring structures in empirical kinship networks, and techniques to effectuate these analyses with the computer program pajek. A program package containing the required macros can be downloaded from the web. The working of the method is illustrated at the example of kinship networks from four different parts of the world (South-America, Africa, Australia and Europe).
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| Number |
168, Winter 2004, special issue: Social networks |
| Language |
English | Read the article
| Title |
Probability, demography and social sciences |
| Author |
COURGEAU Daniel |
| Keywords |
Demography, Epistemological probability, Frequence-type probability, Social sciences, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Demography, Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Probabilities, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
This paper considers the different approaches to probability, that has been developed from the XVIIth century, compared to the simultaneous development of social sciences. If the frequency-type approach, for which the probability is the mathematical limit to which the relative frequency of an outcome converges, the epistemological approach, for which the probability concerns the available evidence it is reasonable to have a degree of belief in the truth of a given proposition, seems to be more suitable for social sciences. A presentation and a discussion of these two approaches are made here, with numerous examples of application to social sciences. |
| Number |
167, Fall 2004 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
"Daniel Courgeau, "Du groupe à l'individu. Synthèse multiniveau", Paris, INED, 2004, 242 p. |
| Author |
BARBUT Marc |
| Keywords |
None |
| Topics |
Book review, Demography, Methodology, Modelling, Statistics |
| Abstract |
Book review |
| Number |
167, Fall 2004 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Malthus and Boserup turned upside down: the odd story of demo-economics modelling |
| Author |
LE BRAS Hervé |
| Keywords |
Boserup, Demo-économics, Malthus, Population, Resources |
| Topics |
Demography, Economy - Econometrics, Historical demography - History of Demography, Modelling |
| Abstract |
Malthus was not a mathematician but he provided in few sentences a very fine view of the relationship between population, resources and technical improvement, a view summarized in the well-known competition between arithmetical and geometrical progressions. After him, Quetelet and Verhulst formulated a more mathematical view at the expense of the true process envisioned by the English scholar. More recently, the economists, starting with Solow until R.D. Lee went further away from Malthus's ideas in the name of mathematics and mainstream economics. In fact, we see in this paper, they went as far as to inverse the scheme of Malthus into its opposite, putting in face of it a «boserupian» model, itself inverting the ideas of the great agrarian and human scientist, Ester Boserup. Such a process, where elegant mathematics respects more the current social theory than the crude facts, is quite illustratory of a way of dealing with social and economic dynamics by introducing the time in the formulae instead of coping with the complexity of the reality. In this case, progress in mathematics is paralleled with loss of contact with the real world. |
| Number |
164, Winter 2003 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
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