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Results n° 1 to 8 of 52 matches
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Title Statistical inference, exchangeability and multilevel approach
Author COURGEAU Daniel
Keywords Epistemological probability, Exchangeability, Frequence-type probability, Multilevel approach, Simpson paradox, Social sciences, Statistical inference
Topics Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Social Sciences, Statistics
Abstract This paper is concerned with the problems of statistical inference in social sciences. In order to pass from a population to a new individual by inference, de Finetti's idea of exchangeability is useful. This is shown in a simple logit model and in a multilevel model, with a larger number of observed groups, where the Simpson's paradox arises depending on whether you work on aggregate data or on group data. The concept of exchangeability permits, by using the appropriate probabilities, to solve a number of problems arising in statistical inference. But it is necessary to use not only the data but also information inferred by other means in order to make the final inference.
Number 179, Fall 2007
Language   French
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Title Structural models and complexity of reality
Author PELLOIS Christian
Keywords Causality, Degree of difficulty, Differences, Implicative statistical analysis, Methodology, Precedence
Topics Mathematical Statistics, Methodology, Modelling, Statistics
Abstract Implicative statistical analysis expands the field of methods for processing the relationships between variables. In this sense, it represents an important advance in the realm of structural models applied to data. However, as with all processing models, its application in the social sciences poses difficult questions concerning the interpretation of results. Drawing upon the results of both previous and ongoing research, this article aims to evaluate the methodological difficulties of this model.
Number 177, Spring 2007
Language   French
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Title How Ronald Fisher became a mathematical statistician
Author STIGLER Stephen M.
Keywords Fiducial inference, Maximum likelihood, Parameter, Sufficiency
Topics History of Mathematics, History of sciences, Mathematical Statistics, Statistics
Abstract In hommage to Bernard Bru, the story is told of the crucial influence Karl Pearson had on Ronald Fisher through a timely and perceptive editorial reply to a hasty and insufficiently considered short submission by Fisher.
Number 176, Winter 2006, special issue: Contribution to the history of probabilities. Tribute issue to Bernard Bru
Language  English
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Title Contribution to the history of laplacian tests
Author ARMATTE Michel
Keywords Astronomy, Bayes, Cournot, Fisher, Hypothesis tests, Laplace P.S., Neyman, Sex-ratio, Statistical tests
Topics History of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics, Statistics, Test
Abstract Crossing the historical studies of Laplace statistics by Bernard Bru and the critical questioning of the modern uses of hypothesis that began in the 1960's, we are tracking the use of hypothesis testing in Laplace's texts. We can already find in these writings a combination of several approaches and interpretations, ressembling that of the current practice which is a hybrid of Bayes-Laplace's, Fisher's and Neyman's conceptions of statistical testing.
Number 176, Winter 2006, special issue: Contribution to the history of probabilities. Tribute issue to Bernard Bru
Language   French
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Title The use of significance tests by psychologists, from normative, descriptive and prescriptive viewpoints
Author POITEVINEAU Jacques
Keywords Bayesian methods, Confidence intervals, Inductive reasoning, Methodology, Significance test, Statistical inference
Topics Mathematical Statistics, Methodology, Probabilities, Psychology, Statistics
Abstract At a normative level, the significance tests appear to be ill-suited and the main criticisms are reported. At a descriptive level, both examination of statistical textbooks, re-analyses of published papers and experiments about the use of significance tests by psychologists clearly reveals many misuses. At a prescriptive level, alternative solutions are considered, especially the Bayesian methods which appear to be especially attractive.
Number 167, Fall 2004
Language   French
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Title Probability, demography and social sciences
Author COURGEAU Daniel
Keywords Demography, Epistemological probability, Frequence-type probability, Social sciences, Statistical inference
Topics Demography, Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Probabilities, Social Sciences
Abstract This paper considers the different approaches to probability, that has been developed from the XVIIth century, compared to the simultaneous development of social sciences. If the frequency-type approach, for which the probability is the mathematical limit to which the relative frequency of an outcome converges, the epistemological approach, for which the probability concerns the available evidence it is reasonable to have a degree of belief in the truth of a given proposition, seems to be more suitable for social sciences. A presentation and a discussion of these two approaches are made here, with numerous examples of application to social sciences.
Number 167, Fall 2004
Language   French
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Title Lhoste's tests
Author HADJADJI SEDDIK-AMEUR Nacira
Keywords Graphical test, Lhoste, Multidimensional Gaussian distribution
Topics Biography, History of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics, Probabilities, Statistics
Abstract We present the Lhoste's graphical tes tfor normality and its mutivariate extensions. We begin by recalling the Lhoste's career from Artillery to Standardization.
Number 162, Summer 2003
Language   French
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Title On money, file and death: the social investigations of Louis-René Villermé on differences in mortality according to income (1822-1830)
Author LECUYER Bernard-Pierre, BRIAN Eric
Keywords Ease, Longevity, Mortality, Political arithmetic, Statistics
Topics Demography, Historical demography - History of Demography, History of sciences, Mathematical Statistics, Sociology, Statistics
Abstract Louis-René Villermé, by his computations in political economy performed under the aegis of the Royal Academy of Medicine, based on administrative data, overthrows a timeless and fundamental topos of universal culture (money is powerless against death). Villermé establishes instead the existence of a direct relationship between ease (hence money) and longevity, and, naturally, of an inverse relationship between this same ease and mortality. A deep cultural revolution is at stake here concerning the perception of the relationships between money, life and death. The paper raises afterwards the question of the reasons why these daring results of political arithmetic of the years 1825 have only been accepted with a certain reticence by the official depositaries of the strictly statistical tradition of the Académie Royale des Sciences, i.e. the jury for the prize of statistics Auget de Montyon, and principally its referee Coquebert de Montbret.
Number 149, Spring 2000
Language   French
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