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Modify search criterions Results n° 1 to 8 of 52 matches
| Title |
Statistical inference, exchangeability and multilevel approach |
| Author |
COURGEAU Daniel |
| Keywords |
Epistemological probability, Exchangeability, Frequence-type probability, Multilevel approach, Simpson paradox, Social sciences, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Social Sciences, Statistics |
| Abstract |
This paper is concerned with the problems of statistical inference in social sciences. In order to pass from a population to a new individual by inference, de Finetti's idea of exchangeability is useful. This is shown in a simple logit model and in a multilevel model, with a larger number of observed groups, where the Simpson's paradox arises depending on whether you work on aggregate data or on group data. The concept of exchangeability permits, by using the appropriate probabilities, to solve a number of problems arising in statistical inference. But it is necessary to use not only the data but also information inferred by other means in order to make the final inference. |
| Number |
179, Fall 2007 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Structural models and complexity of reality |
| Author |
PELLOIS Christian |
| Keywords |
Causality, Degree of difficulty, Differences, Implicative statistical analysis, Methodology, Precedence |
| Topics |
Mathematical Statistics, Methodology, Modelling, Statistics |
| Abstract |
Implicative statistical analysis expands the field of methods for processing the relationships between variables. In this sense, it represents an important advance in the realm of structural models applied to data. However, as with all processing models, its application in the social sciences poses difficult questions concerning the interpretation of results. Drawing upon the results of both previous and ongoing research, this article aims to evaluate the methodological difficulties of this model. |
| Number |
177, Spring 2007 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
Read the article
| Title |
Contribution to the history of laplacian tests |
| Author |
ARMATTE Michel |
| Keywords |
Astronomy, Bayes, Cournot, Fisher, Hypothesis tests, Laplace P.S., Neyman, Sex-ratio, Statistical tests |
| Topics |
History of Mathematics, Mathematical Statistics, Statistics, Test |
| Abstract |
Crossing the historical studies of Laplace statistics by Bernard Bru and the critical questioning of the modern uses of hypothesis that began in the 1960's, we are tracking the use of hypothesis testing in Laplace's texts. We can already find in these writings a combination of several approaches and interpretations, ressembling that of the current practice which is a hybrid of Bayes-Laplace's, Fisher's and Neyman's conceptions of statistical testing. |
| Number |
176, Winter 2006, special issue: Contribution to the history of probabilities. Tribute issue to Bernard Bru |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
The use of significance tests by psychologists, from normative, descriptive and prescriptive viewpoints |
| Author |
POITEVINEAU Jacques |
| Keywords |
Bayesian methods, Confidence intervals, Inductive reasoning, Methodology, Significance test, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Mathematical Statistics, Methodology, Probabilities, Psychology, Statistics |
| Abstract |
At a normative level, the significance tests appear to be ill-suited and the main criticisms are reported. At a descriptive level, both examination of statistical textbooks, re-analyses of published papers and experiments about the use of significance tests by psychologists clearly reveals many misuses. At a prescriptive level, alternative solutions are considered, especially the Bayesian methods which appear to be especially attractive. |
| Number |
167, Fall 2004 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Probability, demography and social sciences |
| Author |
COURGEAU Daniel |
| Keywords |
Demography, Epistemological probability, Frequence-type probability, Social sciences, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Demography, Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Probabilities, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
This paper considers the different approaches to probability, that has been developed from the XVIIth century, compared to the simultaneous development of social sciences. If the frequency-type approach, for which the probability is the mathematical limit to which the relative frequency of an outcome converges, the epistemological approach, for which the probability concerns the available evidence it is reasonable to have a degree of belief in the truth of a given proposition, seems to be more suitable for social sciences. A presentation and a discussion of these two approaches are made here, with numerous examples of application to social sciences. |
| Number |
167, Fall 2004 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
Read the article
| Title |
On money, file and death: the social investigations of Louis-René Villermé on differences in mortality according to income (1822-1830) |
| Author |
LECUYER Bernard-Pierre, BRIAN Eric |
| Keywords |
Ease, Longevity, Mortality, Political arithmetic, Statistics |
| Topics |
Demography, Historical demography - History of Demography, History of sciences, Mathematical Statistics, Sociology, Statistics |
| Abstract |
Louis-René Villermé, by his computations in political economy performed under the aegis of the Royal Academy of Medicine, based on administrative data, overthrows a timeless and fundamental topos of universal culture (money is powerless against death). Villermé establishes instead the existence of a direct relationship between ease (hence money) and longevity, and, naturally, of an inverse relationship between this same ease and mortality. A deep cultural revolution is at stake here concerning the perception of the relationships between money, life and death.
The paper raises afterwards the question of the reasons why these daring results of political arithmetic of the years 1825 have only been accepted with a certain reticence by the official depositaries of the strictly statistical tradition of the Académie Royale des Sciences, i.e. the jury for the prize of statistics Auget de Montyon, and principally its referee Coquebert de Montbret. |
| Number |
149, Spring 2000 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
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