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Results n° 1 to 8 of 76 matches
| Title |
Statistical inference, exchangeability and multilevel approach |
| Author |
COURGEAU Daniel |
| Keywords |
Epistemological probability, Exchangeability, Frequence-type probability, Multilevel approach, Simpson paradox, Social sciences, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Social Sciences, Statistics |
| Abstract |
This paper is concerned with the problems of statistical inference in social sciences. In order to pass from a population to a new individual by inference, de Finetti's idea of exchangeability is useful. This is shown in a simple logit model and in a multilevel model, with a larger number of observed groups, where the Simpson's paradox arises depending on whether you work on aggregate data or on group data. The concept of exchangeability permits, by using the appropriate probabilities, to solve a number of problems arising in statistical inference. But it is necessary to use not only the data but also information inferred by other means in order to make the final inference. |
| Number |
179, Fall 2007 |
| Language |
 French | Read the article
| Title |
Condorcet and social mathematics; enthusiastic and yet... |
| Author |
FELDMAN Jacqueline |
| Keywords |
Classification, Condorcet, Social mathematics, Universal language |
| Topics |
History of Mathematics, History of sciences, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
Condorcet was the last of the encyclopaedists : a "geometer" and fervent advocate of «public good», he believed in the unlimited progress of the human mind and knowledge. Reason, which had served the natural sciences so well, had henceforth to serve the «moral sciences», whose aim is human happiness. He was the first to propose and think out «social mathematics». While the nineteenth century paid almost no heed to that, for half a century now he has gained academic renown as a forerunner of mathematics applied to the social sciences. The present article traces the evolution of his ideas - especially his early reluctance, which is shared by some people today. It also looks at other less well-known aspects of his thought, such as the importance he attached to «the art of making tables» and the devising of an universal language which would enable every one to share scientific knowledge. Lastly it shows that beyond the fervent enthousiasm of maturity he was aware of possible misuses. |
| Number |
172, Winter 2005, special issue: Models and mathematical methods in the social sciences: contributions and limits |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Models in social sciences: old and new mining |
| Author |
ARMATTE Michel |
| Keywords |
Econometrics, Epistemology, History of sciences, Model, Social sciences |
| Topics |
Economy - Econometrics, Epistemology, Modelling, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
The model is today a crucial notion in the social and physical sciences. Revisiting several philosophical or historical works on models, the author gives elements for a genealogy of this category, ranging from its use by Maxwell and Boltzmann in physics to the debates of the Vienna circlce on model theory in mathematical logic, and later, the irruption of the notion in the field of social sciences around World War 2, due to the progress made in applied mathematics, computer science and simulations as well as in structural modelling and operational research. The study of complex objects such as ecosystems, the climate or the world economy, which can not be represented within the framework of a single theory, have necessitated a plurality of approaches to knowledge, some of which are theoretical, others empirical. The model, and the software that is used must seek to integrate these various elements of knowledge, while taking into account the aims of the modelling activity; arbitrages, decisions about actions and the management of systems. Rather than a cognitive mediator between theory and observation, modelling has come to be a social and political activity, intrinsically linked to the motivations of the participating actors and to collective decisions. |
| Number |
172, Winter 2005, special issue: Models and mathematical methods in the social sciences: contributions and limits |
| Language |
French | Read the article
Read the article
| Title |
Building models for social space: neighourhood-based models for social networks and affiliation structures |
| Author |
PATTISON Philippa, ROBINS Garry |
| Keywords |
Affiliation, Dynamic, Neighbourhood, Random graph, Social space |
| Topics |
Graphs, Modelling, Networks, Probabilities, Process, Social Sciences, Stochastic Processes |
| Abstract |
We propose a quantitative relational framework for social space. We suggest that social space cannot be specified simply in geographical, network or sociocultural terms but, rather, requires an understanding of the interdependence of relationships among different types of social entities, such as persons, groups, sociocultural resources and places. We also suggest that social space cannot be regarded as fixed: unlike the Euclidean space of Newtonian mechanics, social space is constructed, at least in part, by the social processes that it supports. In the general stochastic relational framework that we propose, relationships among social entities are regarded as the fundamental elements of social space and observed relational entities are viewed as the outcome of processes that occur in overlapping local relational neighbourhoods. Each neighbourhood corresponds to a subset of possible relational entities and is conceived as a possible site of social interaction. We show how special cases of this framework yield hierarchies of models for social networks and for affiliation structures. We also sketch some next steps in the development of this framework. |
| Number |
168, Winter 2004, special issue: Social networks |
| Language |
 English | Read the article
| Title |
Explained Variation in dynamic network models |
| Author |
SNIJDERS Tom A. B. |
| Keywords |
Coefficient of determination, Cohort analysis, Complete network, Dynamic, Entropy, Explained variation |
| Topics |
Entropy, Networks, Social Sciences, Stochastic Processes |
| Abstract |
A measure for explained variation is proposed for stochastic actor-driven models for data on social networks. The measure is based on the entropy of the distribution of the choices made by the actors during the network evolution process. This measure can be helpful in the specification and interpretation of statistical models for longitudinal network data. |
| Number |
168, Winter 2004, special issue: Social networks |
| Language |
English | Read the article
| Title |
Social influence and diffusion of innovation |
| Author |
STEYER Alexandre, ZIMMERMANN Jean-Benoit |
| Keywords |
Diffusion, Diffusion curve, Innovation, Learning, Networks, Power law, Social influence, Structure |
| Topics |
Diffusion, Dynamical Systems, Networks, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
The notion of diffusion holds a central place in any social system, because it is at the heart of individuals behaviour or representation phasing, hence of the co-ordination of their actions. The idea at the origin of the notion of diffusion is that inter-individual interactions are the driving forces of the evolution of individuals' behaviours, beliefs and represen-tations. Our approach in this paper is based on social influence networks. Agents are embedded in network structures where the influence advance depends on cumulative effects. First we draw the foundations of a diffusion model based on social influence networks. Then we study the way of propagation of influence trough "avalanches" giving a central importance to the network topology. We consider the noise produced by those avalanches as a characteristic of the social structure that can contribute, by learning effect, to transform the network structure, hence the dynamics of the diffusion. We then explain why peculiar "critical" diffusion curves do emerge characterized by a power law instead of the exponential form of traditional diffusion curves. |
| Number |
168, Winter 2004, special issue: Social networks |
| Language |
French | Read the article
| Title |
Probability, demography and social sciences |
| Author |
COURGEAU Daniel |
| Keywords |
Demography, Epistemological probability, Frequence-type probability, Social sciences, Statistical inference |
| Topics |
Demography, Epistemology, Mathematical Statistics, Modelling, Probabilities, Social Sciences |
| Abstract |
This paper considers the different approaches to probability, that has been developed from the XVIIth century, compared to the simultaneous development of social sciences. If the frequency-type approach, for which the probability is the mathematical limit to which the relative frequency of an outcome converges, the epistemological approach, for which the probability concerns the available evidence it is reasonable to have a degree of belief in the truth of a given proposition, seems to be more suitable for social sciences. A presentation and a discussion of these two approaches are made here, with numerous examples of application to social sciences. |
| Number |
167, Fall 2004 |
| Language |
French | Read the article
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